India is projected to outpace other major steel-consuming economies with an 8-9% demand growth in 2025, according to CRISIL’s Market Intelligence and Analytics report. This growth is driven by steel-intensive construction in housing and infrastructure and increased demand from engineering, packaging, and other sectors.
However, domestic steel supply remains a concern. Demand rose by 11% in 2024, but competitive imports and declining exports led to weaker production growth. Imports of finished steel increased by 24.5%, while exports fell by 6.4%, adding 3.2 million tonnes of material to meet domestic demand.
Steel imports from China, Japan, and Vietnam surged significantly between 2022 and 2024. China’s exports to India grew 2.4 times, with hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports increasing 28-fold. Similar trends were observed for Japan and Vietnam, while South Korea’s growth was modest. These imports, often priced lower than domestic steel, have created price pressures for Indian producers.
Domestic HRC and cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices declined by 9% and 7% respectively in 2024. This slowed revenue growth for domestic mills, although lower coking coal prices mitigated margin pressures.
The report notes that a proposed safeguard duty, if implemented, could boost domestic steel prices in 2025, particularly in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, iron ore prices rose by 9-10% in 2024, but Australian-origin coking coal prices fell by 12%.
India’s leadership in steel demand growth remains strong despite import challenges, with infrastructure and housing sectors providing robust support.
Also Read: India’s GDP Growth Expected To Rise To 6.7% in FY26: Crisil Report
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