Canada Announces New Immigration Plan; Predicts Temporary Population Decline By 2025

The Canadian government has introduced a new immigration levels plan that will lead to a temporary pause in the country’s population growth.

The plan, outlined by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on Thursday, forecasts a slight population decline of 0.2 percent in both 2025 and 2026, before a projected return to growth in 2027.

As per Xinhua news agency, this move marks a departure from Canada’s longstanding trend of continuous population increase, largely driven by immigration since the country’s founding in 1867.

Adjustments To Immigration Targets

The newly unveiled 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan introduces reduced immigration targets over the next two years.

The government has set limits across various immigration categories, including a controlled approach to temporary residents such as international students and foreign workers.

These changes are likely to contribute to the short-term population dip, combined with other factors such as natural population decreases and an anticipated outflow of temporary residents.

For the first time, Canada’s immigration strategy explicitly includes measures to regulate the number of temporary residents, reflecting concerns about the country’s capacity to absorb such a high influx of individuals within a short period.

Temporary Population Decline Expected

The Canadian population, which reached 41 million in April 2024, has been growing steadily, with immigration serving as a primary driver.

In 2023, immigration accounted for a staggering 98 percent of the country’s overall growth, with 60 percent of that figure stemming from temporary residents, according to Xinhua news agency.

However, the government now anticipates a brief reversal of this trend.

The plan’s projections indicate a modest decline in population by 2025 and 2026, as immigration targets are lowered and a portion of the temporary resident population is likely to exit the country.

The reduction will be minor, but it represents a deliberate policy decision to ease the pressure on infrastructure, housing, and social services.

Population Growth Set To Resume In 2027

Despite the expected short-term decline, Canada is to return to population growth by 2027, with an estimated increase of 0.8 percent.

The government emphasizes that this pause is part of a strategic recalibration to ensure that future immigration supports sustainable growth and economic resilience.

The policy adjustments reflect the government’s recognition of both the benefits and challenges of rapid population expansion.

While immigration has been a key driver of Canada’s economic and demographic vitality, the recent surge in population has placed pressure on housing affordability and public services.

New Approach To Temporary Residents

The 2025-2027 plan introduces specific targets for temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers, who have become an increasingly significant part of Canada’s population growth strategy.

This shift indicates the government’s intent to balance the influx of temporary workers and students with the availability of resources and opportunities within the country.

By regulating the flow of temporary residents, the government aims to ensure that Canada’s immigration policies remain sustainable and beneficial to both newcomers and the existing population.

This adjustment is part of a broader effort to manage Canada’s long-term demographic and economic needs while maintaining its commitment to being a welcoming destination for immigrants from around the world.

As Canada navigates this period of adjustment, the country’s focus will likely be on addressing the critical areas of housing, employment, and social services to better accommodate future population growth and maintain its reputation as one of the most immigration-friendly nations globally.

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