Brent Crude May Hit $90 In December; Goldman Sachs Raises Forecast As Supply Risks Persist

Brent crude oil prices could reach $90 per barrel in December 2026, up 6 per cent from Goldman Sachs’ earlier forecast of $85, as supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict continue to fuel market uncertainty.

The investment bank revised its projection due to persistent supply-side risks that could slow the decline in the risk premium embedded in oil time spreads.

Goldman Sachs currently estimates this premium at slightly above $20.

Despite the revision, the December forecast remains nearly 13 per cent below Brent’s current price of around $103 per barrel.

The bank retained its average Brent forecast of $80 per barrel for 2027.

Goldman Sachs said low inventories, sensitivity to interest rates and concerns over supply disruptions could encourage physical restocking and financial hedging, influencing crude prices.

The report warned that Brent could average $125 per barrel in 2027 if Gulf oil production remains five million barrels per day below February 2026 levels. Its base-case scenario assumes a shortfall of 0.3 million barrels per day.

The bank projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to average $81 per barrel in December 2026 and $73 in 2027.

Wider-than-usual WTI-Brent price spreads, driven by higher shipping costs between the US and Europe, underpin these estimates.

Brent traded near $70 per barrel when the West Asia conflict began in late February. Prices later surged above $125 as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz intensified supply concerns.

The waterway handles nearly 20 per cent of global oil shipments.

Efforts to gradually reopen shipping routes initially eased prices towards pre-conflict levels, but renewed gains pushed Brent back towards $100.

Goldman Sachs identified damage to oil infrastructure and escalating attacks on shipping as key factors that could drive prices higher. The bank cited a prolonged risk premium as another factor.

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