Brent Crude May Hit $90 In December As West Asia Supply Risks Persist

Brent crude oil prices could reach $90 per barrel in December 2026, up 6 per cent from Goldman Sachs’ earlier forecast of $85, as supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict sustain market uncertainty, a report said.

The investment bank raised its December projection due to persistent supply-side risks that could slow the decline in the risk premium embedded in oil time spreads. Goldman Sachs estimates this premium at slightly over $20 currently.

However, the revised forecast remains nearly 13 per cent below Brent’s current price of around $103 per barrel. The bank retained its 2027 average Brent forecast at $80 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs said low inventories, interest-rate sensitivity and concerns over supply disruptions could support physical restocking and financial hedging, influencing crude prices.

The report warned that Brent could average $125 per barrel in 2027 if Gulf oil production remains five million barrels per day below February 2026 levels. Its base-case scenario assumes a shortfall of 0.3 million barrels per day.

The bank projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to average $81 per barrel in December 2026 and $73 in 2027.

Wider-than-usual WTI-Brent price spreads, driven by elevated shipping costs between the United States and Europe, underpin the estimates.

Brent crude traded near $70 per barrel when the West Asia conflict began in late February. Prices subsequently surged above $125 as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20 per cent of global oil shipments, intensified supply concerns.

Gradual reopening efforts initially eased prices towards pre-war levels, but renewed gains pushed Brent back towards $100.

Goldman Sachs identified damage to oil infrastructure, escalating attacks on shipping and a prolonged risk premium as key triggers that could drive prices higher.

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