First Phase of Gujarat Polls: Many Slips between cup and lips

The first phase of Gujarat assembly elections has many fact-full angles for the top two political stalwarts to their speculation of the victory.

The first phase of elections is significant for both Congress and the BJP. In the elections held on these seats five years back in the 2017, there was a close fight seen between the two political parties. This time apart from Congress and the BJP, Aam Aadmi Party is also existing in the fray and the contest is being considered triangular.

During the 2017 polls, the BJP had to face tough challenges in Saurashtra where the Congress had an upper hand, while the BJP gained a landslide victory in Southern Gujarat.

This time there is a direct contest being seen between Congress and the BJP on some seats in Saurashtra-Kutch and certainly a triangular contest on many seats also exists. The Patidar community is important in Gujarat’s Saurashtra and South Gujarat regions. The number of OBC category is also very high.

Going seat by seat there are some factors which can certainly prove to be significant for the final public verdict:

• Seats – 89 (Voting on the seats of Saurashtra-Kutch and South Gujarat)
• Candidates – 788
• Polling Station – 25393
• Total electorate for first phase – 2,39,56,817
• Male voters – 1,24,22,518
• Women voters – 1,15,33,797
• Third Gender Voters – 503

Talk about the voting on the 89 seats in 19 districts – These are the seats belonging to the Saurashtra-Kutch and South Gujarat region:

Rajkot, Surendranagar, Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Botad, Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Tapi, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad – During the 2017 elections, around 68 Percent voting was done here.

• South Gujarat – 35 seats in 7 districts
• Saurashtra-Kutch – 54 seats in 12 districts

A total of 788 candidates are in the fray:

• BJP – 89
• Congress – 89
• Aam Aadmi Party – 88
• BSP – 57
• AIMIM – 6
• SP – 1 (supporting independent candidate)
• Female candidates – 70
• Independent Candidate – 339

In this election, BJP looks dependent on the defectors’ support. Various Congress MLAs who won from Saurashtra-Kutch region in the last  assembly elections have re-appeared in the election field on the BJP ticket as given below:

• Morbi – Brijesh Merja
• Limbdi – Soma Patel
• Visavdar – Harshad Ribdia
• Dhrangadhra – Parsotam Sabaria
• Jasdan – Kunvarji Bavaliya
• Jamnagar – Vallabh Dharaviya
• Manavdar – Jawahar Chavda
• Talala – Lord Barad
• Dhari – JV Kakaria
• Gadda – Praveen Maru

If we see the voting trend on the 89 seats in the first phase during 2017 Elections:

• BJP – 48 (49.3%)
• Congress – 38 (41.7%)
• Other – 3 (9%)

For Saurashtra-Kutch – 54 seats (65% voting)

• Congress – 28 seats
• BJP – 20 seats
• Others – 3 seats

For South Gujarat – 35 seats (70% voting)

• BJP – 27 seats
• Congress – 8 seats

Going further in the electoral past of the 2012 elections in the state, the voting trend of 89 seats in the first phase was like this:

• BJP – 63 (47.6%)
• Congress – 22 (37.3%)
• Others – 4 (15.1%)

By an eye view over the performance of the parties in the 2017 elections, we see:

BJP – The region of Saurashtra showed the worst performance of the BJP. Out of 19 districts of the first phase, BJP could not open its account in 7 districts. The saffron party did not get a seat in Amreli, Narmada, Dangs, Tapi, Aravalli, Morbi and Gir Somnath districts. Bharatiya Janata Party was successful in winning both the seats of Porbandar. In Kutch, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Surat, Navsari and Valsad, the BJP was able to win more seats than the Congress did. BJP won 15 out of 16 seats in Surat whereas Congress got only one seat. Surat was the most important contributor to the BJP’s return to power.

CONGRESS – The victory seats we see for the historical party – Total five in Amreli, four in Gir Somnath, three each in Aravali and Morbi, two each in Narmada and Tapi and one seat in Dangs. Congress had won all these constituencies. Significantly, the Congress won more seats than BJP in Surendranagar, Junagadh and Jamnagar. The Congress won four out of five seats in Surendranagar district, four out of five in Junagadh district and three out of five in Jamnagar district too. In the first phase, Porbandar was the only district where Congress could open its account.