The Global Pandemonium: A Myth or Reality?

Wars. Somehow, I always thought that I would only study about wars that have already happened in history. I never thought I would actually have to live through wars. What I was trying to cultivate was not blind optimism, merely radical hope. I thought that diplomacy and multilateral peace talks have advanced enough since 1945 to put an end to pernicious disputes and abhorrent conflicts. At the moment, our world is engulfedwith wars, be it local, regional or international. While most conflicts have nascent roots emerging from various political issues, some have their roots emerging from decades, if not centuries, of ideological differences amongst nations. The saddest part of it all is that we have somehow managed to put blinders on and, despite knowing that a world war could very much be imminent and inevitable, we choose to ignore the truth and test the limits of our credulousness.

Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, Iran-Israel, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Darfur, Tigrayan rebels and the Ethiopian federal forces, U.S.-China. Conspicuously, the list is endless. These are some of the prominent conflicts that have discerningly impacted the global economy. Not only that but every person ruthlessly killed leaves darkness behind where there once used to be luminescent joy, just like a shooting star. Why is it so that civilians always have to end up paying for the stringent and despondent policies nations implement to annihilate their rivals? Is it that hard to make sure that the world does not fall apart? Is it truly so hard to maintain diplomatic relations and achieve international cooperation to solve humanitarian, social, political and economic issues? Is it that difficult to not kill thousands of innocent civilians and spare their families from immense grief?

I would now like to elaborate on the causes and consequences of each of the aforementioned conflicts, deriving commonalities from each and finally arriving at an analytical conclusion. Starting, we have Russia-Ukraine. Everyone knows what happened here due to the immense media coverage this conflict received. The pandemonium we witness today commenced in 2008 when there was a discussion of extending a Membership Action Plan to Ukraine during a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) Summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin was against this as he saw it a threat to Russia’s defence, national security and sphere of influence in the eastern hemisphere. Soon after, in 2014, Russia seized and regained absolute control over Crimea which created a massive uproar and was condemned by all international organisations. Ultimately, an ultimatum was served to Ukraine and NATO where certain security agreements were demanded. Failure to arrive at a consensus led to Russia launching a full-fledged attack on Ukraine on February 24^th, 2022. Ukraine received military support from Germany and the U.S. as well. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, a total of 10,852 civilians have fallen prey to this treachery as of February 2024. Incomes in Ukraine have plummeted, with 7.1 million people pushed back into poverty. Several citizens have been displaced from their hometowns and lost their sources of income. Ukraine lost 30-35% of its GDP, undoing several years of progress. The imposition of rigorous sanctions on Russia triggered inflation rates, with oil prices rising unprecedentedly and also leading to food insecurity. Moreover, Netflix also withdrew its services from Russia, and I personally feel that no high-schooler should have to go through their school life without binge-watching all episodes of their favourite TV show.

Next comes the Israel-Hamas and the Israel-Iran conflict, both of which are corelated. To briefly summarise, Israel was declared a sovereign republic in 1948, acting as a safe haven for Jews who had been reprimanded and faced the callous wrath of the Nazis in World War II. This decision, formalised viz a viz UN Resolution 181, was greatly resented by the Arab population which were a majority at the time, which led to them retaliating. Israel was triumphant in this war and actually acquired more territorial control than before. However, Palestinians continued to reside in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, which were captured by Israel in 1967. It is actually a misconception that the Palestinian Liberation Organisation supports the Hamas. Like the U.S. and the U.K., PLO also condemns the Hamas and labels it as a terrorist organisation. On 7^th October, Hamas militants stormed into Israeli territory, killing 1200 people on the very first day and torturing several of them. Egregiously, they were notorious for using social media to spread the message of their devious intentions by parading hostages across the city and treating them with absolute immorality. Supporting the wrong group of people resonates with Macbeth’s blind ambition, with Othello’s wanton jealousy. Their erroneous personalitiesbecame the very reason for their downfall. Iran provides monetary support to a number of extremist Palestinian groups, including the Hamas. Therefore, it was lucid that they too would eventually launch an offensive against Israel. Iran initially accused Israel of cyberattack and of bombing a building in Damascus and of gas pipeline explosions, after which Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel. As I was writing this article, an update on Al Jazeera revealed that a sixteen year old Palestinian boy was just shot dead by Israeli forces during their raid of the Nur Shams refugee camp in the West Bank. 34,012 people have been killed. Several injured and several more displaced. Does it matter what religion they belonged to? Or what their political opinions were? Or who they supported? Or who they were against? Or what their personal opinion on this entire conflict was? At the end of the day, they were all lamentably drawn apart from their loved ones. Again, this too negatively impacted crude oil prices, led to labour market disruption and an overall increase in the global cost of energy consumption.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is more nuanced and slightly different from the other two discussed above. .Ever since the USSR split, and Armenia and Azerbaijan split from the USSR, incessant fighting over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh also known as Artsakh, has continued. A majority, in fact, more than 90% of Artsakh’s population consists of Armenians. In February of 1980, a referendum, following the legal obligations as per the constitution, was held in Armenia. The result of this referendum was that the citizens of Artsakh wanted to be unified with Armenia. Further, as per the Bishkek Protocol, a Russian-brokered ceasefire, Armenia got de facto control over all the territories it had occupied. On July 12^th 2020, violence re-erupted in the region of Tavush with Azerbaijan attacking the region and President Aliyev making threats to wage war on Artsakh and Armenia. After another Russian-brokered ceasefire was established, Azerbaijan continued its advances on Armenia and the Armenian people of Artsakh, leading to the current situation. Time and again, Azerbaijan has been internationally recognised to have convened deplorable acts like ethnic cleansing, racial genocide, humanitarian crimes against prisoners of war and the promotion of hate speech against Armenians, all of which violate a plethora of conventions like the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination and the Geneva Convention. At least 6,64,000 Armenians were killed as a result of what is widely labelled as the Armenian Genocide, initiated by the Azerbaijanis over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This region has been a region of ethnic and territorial conflict for far too long. Both nations agreed to take the matter to the International Court of Justice in 2021. However, turmoil between the nations is still rampant. As of 16^th April, 2024, Armenia continues to claim that Azerbaijan has finally completed its intention of ‘erasing’ any and all traces of Armenians in Artsakh. Similar issues have also arisen in Sudan’s Darfur region due to the ethnic divide between the Arab and non-Arab population.

From all the conflicts stated above, it is evident that all wars and conflicts, small-scale or large-scale, have a multifaceted negative impact on the social, economic, political and humanitarian fronts. Vulnerable groups such as indigenous people, minorities, migrants, refugees, labourers and others facing extreme poverty, women and children are egregiously made victims who suffer the loss of their sanctity and livelihood. The GDP of a nation is bound to fall if it is involved in a war, inflation is bound to reach an all-time high, oil prices are bound to rise, the number of Internally Displaced Persons is bound to increase, the influx of refugees seeking for shelter will naturally increase, political and democratic stability is bound to crumble, humanitarian crimes are bound to increase manifold, technological development is bound to stagger and halt, mutual respect for each other’s culture and heritage is bound to decline, the climate is bound to suffer. Irrespective of the scale, geopolitical location and reason of conflict, these are some common consequences that will occur undoubtedly.

In conclusion, all I would like to say is that we do not need to take a punctuated evolutionary path when it comes to solving disputes. We saw what happened between 1914 and 1919. We saw what happened between 1939 and 1945 again. We also saw what happened during the Cold War. Do we need to see it again? I do not think so. We need to ensure that justice is delivered. To the young girl who lost her father to the wrath of war. To the wife who lost the love of her life and the breadwinner of her family to a nation or a militant group’s treacherous and paternalistic policies. To each and every soldier who lost his life in such conflicts. We need to regain control of the present as well as the future. The future of a plethora of innocent civilians lies in our hands. As you are reading this article, atrocities against refugees, against women, against displaced persons continue to be incessantly committed. In conclusion, this chaos we see all around us is nothing but an unscrupulous result of our past actions. It most certainly is not a myth, and at the moment, we cannot afford to make it a reality either.

Ishana Sharma

Young Author