Can Exit Polls Be Trusted In 2026? West Bengal To Kerala Trends Tell A Different Story

Voting for the second phase of Assembly elections across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry has concluded.

As the electorate awaits official results, attention has turned to exit polls, expected later in the evening. These projections often trigger contrasting reactions, celebration among supporters of leading parties and scepticism from those predicted to fall behind.

The central question remains: how dependable have exit polls been in recent elections?

In the 294-seat Assembly of West Bengal, exit polls have frequently missed the mark. During 2021, projections suggested a tight contest between TMC and BJP, yet TMC secured 213 seats while BJP managed only 77.

In 2016, polls correctly predicted a TMC victory but underestimated its scale, as the party won 211 seats. Similarly, in 2011, estimates placed the TMC alliance at around 180–182 seats, but TMC alone crossed 184, leaving the Left far behind.

Exit polls in Assam have generally been dependable. In 2021, predictions of a BJP alliance returning with 75–85 seats closely matched the outcome.

In 2016, polls correctly anticipated a shift in power in favour of the BJP alliance. Although slightly off in 2011, the overall direction remained broadly accurate, with Congress forming the government.

The 234-seat Assembly in Tamil Nadu has produced mixed results for exit polls. In 2021, forecasts of a DMK alliance victory proved correct, though seat counts were underestimated. Similarly, in 2016, polls leaned towards DMK, while AIADMK retained power. In 2011, predictions varied widely, yet AIADMK achieved a decisive win with 203 seats.

Exit polls in Kerala have largely captured the electoral mood. In 2021, they predicted the return of the LDF, which secured a strong 99-seat victory. Similar accuracy was seen in 2016, while in 2011, projections indicating a UDF lead closely reflected the final results.

In Puducherry, exit polls have mostly delivered reliable forecasts. They correctly predicted the NDA’s lead in 2021 and the Congress-DMK alliance victory in 2016.

In 2011, they successfully captured the anti-incumbency wave that led to a change in government.

Overall, exit polls have shown strong reliability in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry, while Tamil Nadu presents a mixed picture.

West Bengal, however, has consistently defied projections. As new exit poll figures emerge, all eyes will once again be on these states to see whether predictions align with reality or fall short yet again.

Also Read: Voter Turnout At 05:00 PM: West Bengal At 89.99% In Phase 2