India’s economy is likely to expand by 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024-25, driven by strong agricultural performance and a sharp rise in net indirect tax collections, according to Barclays.
Aastha Gudwani, Chief Economist at Barclays India, said agriculture will likely show improved growth year-on-year. “Advance crop estimates point to record wheat output. We estimate agriculture GVA growth at 5.8% in Q4, up from 5.6% in Q3,” Gudwani stated.
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Monday confirmed the rise in output. He announced India’s foodgrain production has grown by over 106 lakh tonnes to 1,663.91 lakh tonnes in 2024-25. This marks a 6.83% increase over last year’s production.
Rabi crop output rose from 1,600.06 lakh tonnes in 2023-24 to 1,645.27 lakh tonnes this year, the minister added.
Barclays expects the fourth-quarter GDP growth to reach 7.2%, mainly due to higher indirect tax collections. It has pegged real GDP growth for the full fiscal year at 6.4%. The rise in indirect taxes reflects strong activity in manufacturing and services.
Earlier this month, Moody’s Ratings projected India’s GDP growth at 6.3% for 2025, rising to 6.5% in 2026. Its forecast aligns with the IMF, which sees India as the only major economy with growth above 6% in 2025.
These estimates are slightly lower than the National Statistical Office’s second official forecast of 6.5% for FY25, with a Q4 projection of 7.6%.
Economists estimate the economy grew between 6.4% and 7.2% in the January–March 2025 quarter. They expect full-year GDP growth to range from 6.3% to 6.4%.
ICRA forecasts a 6.9% GDP rise in Q4 FY25 and 6.3% growth for the full fiscal. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, noted uneven trends in private consumption and investment due to tariff uncertainty. Services exports grew in double digits, while merchandise exports fell in Q4 after expanding in Q3.
The government will release official Q4 and full-year FY25 GDP data on 30 May.
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